All models are wrong

Different levels of beliefs

May 05, 2022

I noticed something interesting in day to day communication, when someone make a statement, for example, Fire is red, there are multi degrees of beliefs. But it is too nuanced to differentiate them purely based on our day to day language.

Let’s say Alice and Tom is having a conversation, and Alice said Earth is Flat, there are at least 3 interpretations

  1. Alice believe what she said, and she also think Tom should agree with her unless Tom is unreasonable or stupid or both.
  2. Alice believe what she said, but she acknowledge this isnt a widespread knowledge, so she expect Tom to not agree with her and be wrong.
  3. Alice believe what she said, but acknowledge this is a controversial take, and people disagreeing with her can be as reasonable as her.

For the lack of better word, I am calling this 3 levels of self belief. I frequently see people failing to differentiate them, especially between the 3rd and 2nd level. In the context of online forum, this makes people feel offended, and make communication less effective.

I believe the best way to engage (assuming a non-competitive context) is to always interpret other’s position in the best possible way.


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I like to talk about stuff I have no idea about. Sometimes I even write about them.